The European automotive market is back in the black, with a 17% growth rate in November. It seems the worst of the automotive component crisis is over. Although, with an energy-derived recession knocking on the door, this uptick might not last for long….
Looking at the plugin vehicle market in particular, things are also better. Approximately 281,000 plugin vehicles were registered in November, 26% growth compared to the same month of 2021 and a new record month.
PHEVs got out of the red, with plugin hybrids growing 19% in November, to 106,000 units, their first six-figure result since June 2021. Keep in mind that this has more to do with a year-end peak in a number of countries, namely Germany, due to the end of incentives for PHEVs than any revival of consumer interest in the powertrain.
BEVs grew 31% year over year (YoY) in November (+26% YTD) to some 175,000 registrations, their second best result ever after the 182,000 units of December 2021. BEVs represented 62% of plugin sales in November, pulling the yearly average to 60%.
With greater BEV availability in the coming months and more stringent incentives for PHEVs next year in many European countries, expect this ratio to continue improving on the BEV side next year. We could possibly reach something like 80% BEV vs. 20% PHEV by the end of 2023. This would be a great improvement over the 54% BEV vs. 46% PHEV ratio that we had in both 2020 and 2021.
October’s plugin vehicle share of the overall European auto market was 27.7% (17.3% full electrics/BEVs), pulling the 2022 plugin vehicle (PEV) share to 22% (13% for BEVs alone).
A highlight last month was the gold + silver leadership of Tesla.
Top Selling Electric Vehicles in Europe — November 2022
Let’s look closer at November’s top 5 plugin vehicles in Europe.
#1 Tesla Model Y — The crossover had a record month in November, clocking 19,543 registrations, allowing it to be the #1 model in the overall market. Demand remains strong, especially with the arrival of the Standard Range (SR) version, and should continue like this well into 2023, making the Tesla EV the strongest candidate for next year’s Best Seller title. Last month, the Model Y’s main markets were the usual — Germany (3,867 registrations), the UK (4,210), and Norway (3,212) in the lead, with France (2,891 registrations) and Italy (1,009) also providing a surprising contribution to the tally, no doubt thanks to the introduction of the SR version.
#2 Tesla Model 3 — The 2021 Best Selling EV in Europe continues to deliver consistent performances, with the sedan delivering 12,269 registrations, a new off-peak record, in November. Despite this, demand seems to be slowing down in Europe, so one wonders how it will behave in 2023. Regarding November deliveries, the US EV had over half of its deliveries in Germany — 6,811 registrations — followed from afar by France (2,809 registrations) and Norway (1,796 registrations), while the 4th best market was Hungary(!), with just 152 units(!!!). Uncoincidentally, all of the Model 3’s top three markets are in the middle of a sales rush due to reduced incentives in 2023.
#3 Ford Kuga PHEV — The Euro-spec version of the Ford Escape PHEV had a record month in November, with 8,102 units registered. Ford is milking everything it can from the crossover before the sunset of PHEV incentives in Germany. This is visible when looking at November deliveries, with the crossover having by far its best score ever in Germany (4,649 registrations). This market alone is responsible for over half the model’s deliveries in November. The next best markets were the UK (1,690 registrations), Spain (570 registrations), and of course Denmark (in fourth with 395 registrations).
#4 Volkswagen ID.4 — The star of Volkswagen Group ended the month on a high note again, by getting 7,391 registrations, the crossover’s best result since April 2021. With its production constraints mostly surpassed, the USA allocation being produced locally, and the Emden production ramping up, expect higher production output for the European ID.4 in the coming months. Volkswagen is hoping to reach 10,000 units a month by December, a necessary threshold to cross in order for the crossover to remain relevant globally, as regular 5-digit performances in Europe will be needed to add to the Chinese 5-digit(ish) performances. It could then reach between 200,000 and 300,000 deliveries in 2023. Regarding November deliveries, the Volkswagen EV had its best score in Germany (2,097 units) and Norway (1,110 units), followed by Sweden (911 units) and Austria (633 units).
#5 Volkswagen ID.3 — The EV that was supposed to follow in the footsteps of the best selling Volkswagen Golf seems to have finally recovered its form this year. The ID.3 had its best performance in over a year, with 6,950 registrations in November. The German OEM’s production constraints are easing, and Volkswagen now has enough room to increase the ID.3’s production rate. For a while, it seems that the ID.3’s production was being strangled in favour of other, more expensive (and profitable) members of the MEB family. Regarding November deliveries, the compact Volkswagen EV had its best score in Germany (3,619 registrations) and the UK (1,030 registrations), followed by France (559 units) and Norway (468 units).
As a side note, all of the top 5 models had Germany as their main market, which highlights the importance of that market these days.
Looking at the rest of the November table, there are several record results to celebrate. The stylish Renault Megane EV ended the month in #9, with 5,321 registrations, its third record month in a row. The French hatchback will join the top 5 sooner than later. Its current success is critical for Renault, as the remainder of the brand’s lineup failed to post positive results. The hatchback-that-thinks-it’s-a-crossover was the only representative of the brand in November’s top 20.
Elsewhere, we have two Swedes reaching personal-best performances. The #8 Volvo XC40 EV scored 5,404 registrations, and the Polestar 2 reached 5,015 registrations. These two results helped contribute to a great month for Geely–Volvo Group. Additionally, the XC40’s sportier sibling, the C40, scored a record 3,134 registrations, with all these results being their second record scores in a row, so one can say that the Swedes are going full speed ahead with their BEV ramp-up.
In the second half of the table, there was also plenty to talk about, from the record scores of the #13 Cupra Born (4,189 units) and #17 BMW i4 (3,856 units) to the first appearance of the BMW iX on the table, in #20, with a record 3,532 units, allowing it to surpass the full size category leader, the Audi e-tron. That’s even though the e-tron, with 3,418 registrations, also had its best result in over a year.
Below the top 20, there is also a lot to mention. The big news is the production ramp-up of the VW ID.5 and VW ID.BUZZ. The sporty crossover scored 2,880 registrations in November, its seventh record score in a row, while the ID.BUZZ had its first volume month, with 1,305 registrations. This signals that increased component availability for the Volkswagen stable is allowing the MEB family of models to continually pursue its delivery ramp-up. By the way: When will we see the ID.5 (and ID.BUZZ, and Skoda Enyaq…) being launched in China?…
Interestingly, if we were to add all the MEB family sales together (some 32,000 registrations) and compare them to the Tesla Model 3 & Y tally (31,800), we would realise that despite being far from the Tesla models on an individual level, collectively they can outsell the US models.
Even Porsche helped the Volkswagen Group Mothership, with the high-end sports sedan scoring 2,655 registrations, its best result this year.
On the Stellantis stable, the highlights are the Opel Mokka EV, with 3,476 registrations, its third record month in a row, while the Peugeot 308 PHEV continued to ramp up deliveries, clocking 1,591 registrations, which a good omen for the upcoming BEV version of the compact Peugeot.
In other news, SAIC’s MG 4 celebrated 1,936 registrations in only its third month on the market. One has to wonder how fast the Sino-British compact model will reach the top 20, and how high it will go. Should the VW ID.3 and Renault Megane EV be worried?
Top Selling Electric Vehicles in Europe — January–November 2022
Looking at the 2022 ranking, the top positions remained the same. Tesla is now preparing its party celebrating the capture of 1st and 2nd place in this market. Enjoy this 1-2 lead celebration, Tesla, as next year the Model 3 won’t be able to replicate it. The midsize sedan’s deliveries are down 39% YoY, and if the same trend happens next year, the Model 3 not only won’t be runner-up, but probably won’t even sit in the top 5….
Fiat would like to start to prepare the bronze medal celebration for its 500e star player in 3rd, but … one does now know what kind of pre-registration tricks Volkswagen might be preparing for December. With just 3,683 units separating the Fiat 500e from the #4 Volkswagen ID.4, the little Italian is not safe from a surprise coming from the German crossover. To be continued….
The first position change happened in #6, with the Ford Kuga PHEV surpassing the Peugeot e-208 EV and climbing to #6 in November. Expect the VW ID.3 to also have a shot at surpassing the French EV in December. It will all depend on how many pre-registrations Volkswagen was willing to make.
In the last spots on the table, we have a few position changes, with the Hyundai Tucson PHEV jumping two positions to #18 while we welcome two new faces on the table, the Polestar 2 in #19 and the Volvo XC40 PHEV in #20. If we were to add the BEV units (23,990) to the XC40 tally, the Swedish SUV would end up 5th on the table.
Just outside the top 20, we have the rising #21 Cupra Born and #22 Renault Megane EV still trying to get a last minute seat at the table, so the Volvo XC40 PHEV and even the #18 Hyundai Tucson PHEV will need to be vigilant, as they have their places in danger.
Top Auto Brands in EV Sales in Europe — January–November 2022
In the auto brand ranking, BMW (8.8%) and Mercedes (8.4%) have hung onto the top two positions.
A rising Volkswagen (8.0%, up from 7.7%) was surpassed by an even faster rising Tesla (up to 8.1%, from 7.7% in October). Tesla thus climbed to the 3rd position. Will Volkswagen recover the last position on the podium in December?
Kia stayed in 5th, with 5.7% share, down 0.3%, followed by Audi, also 5.7% but some 1,000 units behind. We might have a position change here in December.
Overall, this is a very balanced EV market, as proven by the fact that leader BMW has less than 9% share.
Top OEMs in EV Sales in Europe — January–November 2022
Arranging things by automotive group, the leader, Volkswagen Group, is now at 20.2% share, up from 20% in October.
Stellantis is in a comfortable second place (15.2%). It seems the top two have reached their share potential, as both the runner-up and leader Volkswagen Group’s market shares have been relatively stable in the last few months. Incidentally (or not), these two also lead the overall auto market.
The current bronze medalist, Hyundai–Kia (10.7%, down from 11.1%), has barely kept #4 BMW Group (10.7%) behind it. There are now only two units(!) separating the two. The German OEM has all the chances in the world to grab a podium position in the last stage of the race.
Mercedes Group (9.3%) retained the 5th position, even gaining some ground in November over the #6 Renault–Nissan–Mitsubishi Alliance (8.6%, down 0.1%). The German OEM is expected to be using (and abusing) the PHEV pre-registration trick in December, so we can count on the three-pointed-star group ending the year in 5th.
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Source: Clean Technica